Trump soars, but Republicans lose

Don­ald Trump is on a roll, stump­ing polit­i­cal pun­dits at every polling booth. New Hamp­shire, Neva­da and the cov­et­ed pri­ma­ry of South Car­oli­na have been clinched by the real estate mag­nate, who has blown away his polit­i­cal oppo­nents.

In Neva­da, Don­ald Trump won 46 per­cent of the vote, fol­lowed by Mar­co Rubio at a dis­tant 24 per­cent. In South Car­oli­na, the hal­lowed pri­ma­ry of Repub­li­can leader and for­mer Pres­i­dent Ronald Rea­gan, Trump won the pri­ma­ry by 10 per­cent of the vote over Mar­co Rubio, despite the young Repub­li­can gets the endorse­ment of South Car­oli­na gov­er­nor Nik­ki Haley. In New Hamp­shire, Trump won by almost 20 per­cent of the vote, the run­ner up being Ohio gov­er­nor John Kasich. Trump’s mar­gin­al 3% loss in the first pri­ma­ry in Iowa to Ted Cruz has now been reduced to a foot­note in the pres­i­den­tial race, with him now gain­ing the endorse­ment of New Jer­sey gov­er­nor and for­mer Repub­li­can Pres­i­den­tial can­di­date Chris Christie.

Trump has become a light­ning rod for extreme right-wing Repub­li­can vot­ers. His con­tro­ver­sial views on the Mus­lim com­mu­ni­ty, immi­grants and gun con­trol have giv­en him that pow­er. The Repub­li­can right wing also pos­sess­es a dis­dain for Wash­ing­ton insid­ers, which grants Trump sig­nif­i­cant influ­ence. His TV flair also gives him an edge over his oppo­nents, where audi­ences rel­ish how he tears them down with wit­ty one-lin­ers and come­backs.

Don­ald Trump’s dom­i­nance is also bol­stered by the inabil­i­ty of oth­er par­ty can­di­dates to con­sol­i­date mod­er­ate Repub­li­can votes. As Trump deliv­ers win after win, no Repub­li­can can­di­date has con­sis­tent­ly held sec­ond place, if not giv­en him a close fight. The title for the chal­lenger to Trump for the Repub­li­can nom­i­na­tion is still up for grabs. Till the very end, more than two Repub­li­can can­di­dates may like­ly stay in the race to counter Trump, and so the mod­er­ate Repub­li­can votes will con­tin­ue to be divid­ed to his advan­tage.

The race for the Repub­li­can nom­i­na­tion is no longer a region­al­ly divi­sive issue as well, with Trump sweep­ing pri­maries with dif­fer­ent vot­er demo­graph­ics, local issues and shift­ing polit­i­cal loy­al­ties.

Trump’s ascent is good news for the Demo­c­rat par­ty. In a dual polit­i­cal bat­tle across Amer­i­ca, where both Demo­c­rat and Repub­li­can vot­ers will choose their next Com­man­der-in-chief, Trump will fail to match the socio-polit­i­cal acu­men and the track records of Hillary Clin­ton or Bernie Sanders. This fact will become painful­ly clear to the Repub­li­can Par­ty and vot­ers if Trump ever faces off with Clin­ton or Sanders in the Pres­i­den­tial debates. As he wins the pri­maries alien­at­ing mod­er­ate Repub­li­cans, their votes may just shift to the Demo­c­rat par­ty in favour of keep­ing Trump out of the White House.

Trump’s strat­e­gy is apt for him to clinch the Repub­li­can nom­i­na­tion. How­ev­er, in a face off with Democ­rats across Amer­i­ca, he will fail to gain the nec­es­sary trac­tion as his own party’s machin­ery won’t ful­ly endorse him. While the Repub­li­cans may be forced to hand Trump the nom­i­na­tion, they will do so with the under­stand­ing that the White House will be out of their grasp for anoth­er 4 years.