Tag: Republicans

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Independents: The tipping factor in the US elections

The first phase of the Presidential elections has come to a close, with the months leading up to November set to see a pitched battle between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump. Despite the prospect of America making history – on one side choosing a female Commander-In-Chief and on the other a reality TV star – the biggest headline of the primaries has the been the rise of the Independent voter and the evident weakness of the 2-party American political system.

In the postmodern world, with the fluidity of identity, there is a yearning for political alternatives, a wave that is playing out across the United States.

In the postmodern world, with the fluidity of identity, there is a yearning for political alternatives, a wave that is playing out across the United States. The trend of rising Independents and decline of Democratic voters was earlier indicated by a Pew Research Centre report in 2014, which showed that at the middle of Obama’s Presidency, 39% voters identified themselves as Independents, while Democrats accounted for 32% and Republicans at 23% of voters. Fast forward to 2016, the national Gallup poll, which emerged just a few weeks before the primary race in February showed that 42% of voters identified themselves as Independent voters, with 29% as Democrats and 26% as Republicans. According to the report of the polling agency – Independent identification has been above 40% for the last 5 years, breaching the mark back in 2011 towards the end of Obama’s first term. In fact, Obama’s second term has left the percentage of voters identifying as Democrats at the lowest point in the past 27 years, maintaining just a slim margin over the Republicans. The Gallup report also highlights that a key factor behind voter migration is the policy gridlock in the US Congress. This was a significant aspect of Obama’s last years as President as he faced off against a Republican controlled Congress. To the dismay of Democrats, even though Obama championed key social legislation through Executive Orders, the political advantage has failed to go to his party or Hillary Clinton.

The report gives credence to the rise of Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump as political juggernauts in the Presidential race. They are outsiders, a veteran senator and a self-styled right-wing godman, harnessing the strength of voters estranged from the 2-party system. Both leaders are no veterans of any party and simply sought their nod for the Presidential nomination. Bernie Sanders is the longest serving Independent member of Congress in American history while Donald Trump has changed political parties at least five times since the 1980s and struck oil with his carefully calibrated political pitch to the right-wing voter base.

Even as the attrition rate of voters is marginally higher in the Republican camp, support for the two parties among Independent voters is a dead heat.

Even as the attrition rate of voters is marginally higher in the Republican camp, support for the two parties among Independent voters is a dead heat. The Gallup poll study reveals that out of 42% voters who identified as Independents, 16% leaned towards the Democrats, while another 16% leaned towards the Republicans. Yet, the democratic advantage becomes clear where Bernie Sanders failed to secure traditional Democratic vote banks. Sanders may have given Hillary a tough fight, even forcing her to realign the narrative of her campaign, yet she soared unchallenged in the delegate-count to become the presumptive Democratic candidate. Trump meanwhile was undisputed in the race for the Republican nomination. He was miles ahead of every traditional Republican leader as well as party veterans who all bowed out of the contest.

The advantage of the Democrats is simply a reflection of the evolution of the polity of America, where there is greater public support and respect for social justice issues which the Democrats have traditionally championed. Nonetheless, the ‘advantage’ is a far cry from the popularity the party enjoyed in the George Bush era, where it sustained a comfortable 12 point advantage in multiple voter identification polls.

One major implication of rising Independent voters rallying behind Sanders and Trump is the polarisation of the political narrative. Sanders ‘political revolution’ for universal rights and tackling income inequality was met by Trump’s hate speech, which has galvanised the Republican fringe. This has pushed both parties to eye both ends of the spectrum for political support, as Independents edge themselves into the league of traditional vote banks. Yet, the effect is different for both parties. Independents have pushed the Democrats to get in touch with their social justice ethos and base, connecting the party to the positive sentiment emerging from President Obama’s policy breakthroughs in his last months in office. However, for the Republicans, Trump’s vitriol and zero policy focus has rallied a major section of Independent and Republican voters, but has crippled the party’s credibility for years to come. No international leader can imagine dealing with Trump to decide the fate of the free world.

On a pan-America stage facing voters of all political leanings, the real estate magnate’s venomous campaign and lack of administrative experience is set to crumble before Hillary Clinton.

In the months leading to the election in November, Trump’s narrative is likely to unravel in a face-to-face confrontation with Hillary Clinton. On a pan-America stage facing voters of all political leanings, the real estate magnate’s venomous campaign and lack of administrative experience is set to crumble before Hillary Clinton. It will be a suitable leader versus a downright embarrassment. Trump’s position at the helm of the GOP is likely to push the ‘Democrat-leaning’ Independents into the party’s fold – and it may even surpass the popularity boost delivered by George Bush’s presidency.

Independent voters have proven to be a force to reckon with. They have granted a lesson to Democrats to get in touch with their ideological centre and made Trump a political rock star. Yet, they have torpedoed the Republican party’s image and exposed the political bankruptcy of their leadership.

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Obama’s legacy: ‘Trump’ing the Republicans

A mere technicality now rests between Donald Trump and the Republican Presidential nomination. With Texas senator Ted Cruz and Ohio governor John Kashich dropping out of the race, it is set to be a Hillary vs Trump battle till the Presidential election in November.

History has shown that Nero rose towards the fall of the Roman Empire, and Trump’s rise heralds the same for the Republicans.

But what exactly drove Republican voters to choose a brash reality TV star, a divisive leader with inflammatory views on minorities, women and the welfare state? How did the party of Conservative politics, once headed by Abraham Lincoln and Ronald Reagan, come to this?

History has shown that Nero rose towards the fall of the Roman Empire, and Trump’s rise heralds the same for the Republicans. It reveals the dearth of national leaders in the party, now defined by the worst aspects of right-wing political thought. Leaving the Republican Party in such a state of political and moral bankruptcy is President Barack Obama’s greatest legacy.

Under Obama’s presidency, multiple social issues, which were once politically grey areas, have become more defined along party lines, with the Democrats actively championing the social justice narrative.

In his second term, Obama’s ideological purity on healthcare, immigration reform, same-sex rights, women’s rights, gun control and diplomacy, has rallied democratic voters who yearned for a steadfast Commander-in-Chief, especially after a first term of politicking and flip flops.

Obama also pushed the Democratic Party’s green agenda, issuing an executive order in March 2015 to cut the Federal government’s greenhouse gas emissions by 40 percent over the next decade.

In January, Obama passed executive orders tightening gun regulation. In an emotional speech, remembering the victims of the many horrible massacres during his tenure, he called to an end to the excuses for inaction. In October 2015, Obama chose diplomacy over military action to bring Iran to the negotiating table, and achieved the historic nuclear deal.

Obama energized his push for affordable healthcare against an adamant Republican Party, allowing ‘socialist’ jibes to roll off his back. In June 2015, the US Supreme Court backed Obama’s stance that healthcare was not a privilege, but a right for all American citizens. Obama also pushed the Democratic Party’s green agenda, issuing an executive order in March 2015 to cut the Federal government’s greenhouse gas emissions by 40 percent over the next decade.

In 2013, Obama signed executive orders to overhaul the immigration system, giving American citizens and legal resident children who have lived in the US for more than five years relief from deportation if they register with the government, undergo background checks, and pay taxes.

In 2012, at the beginning of his second term, Obama became the first sitting President to support same-sex marriage, repealing the controversial ‘Don’t ask, Don’t tell’ policy for the American military. Few years later, in July 2015, the US Supreme Court legalized gay marriage across the United States.

All of the policy initiatives in Obama’s second term allowed him to settle the Democratic Party in the Centre-Left of American politics.

Obama set the narrative for the Democrats ahead of the Presidential elections, aligning the party to the sentiments of its voter base and core social justice agenda.

It wasn’t an easy ride. As he pushed the Democratic Party’s image into a state of flux he suffered politically, namely in the 2014 midterm elections, where the Republicans took control of Congress.

Nonetheless, Obama set the narrative for the Democrats ahead of the Presidential elections, aligning the party to the sentiments of its voter base and core social justice agenda. In 2016, the Democratic mantra has pan-America support.

Obama 2.0 allowed a Democratic idealist like Bernie Sanders to launch his campaign and achieve significant traction with voters. It even pushed Hillary Clinton to reign in the flip-flops on key social issues, and stay true to the basic Democratic agenda.

As Obama rooted the Democratic Party’s identity, he also pushed the Republicans to to pose an ideological counter. However, to the dismay of Republican leaders, Donald Trump has anchored the party’s identity in the extreme right of American politics. His impetuous, hateful, war-drum, apocalypse-now narrative has reduced the party to the collective of the irrational.

But Republicans also need to fear Trump, as he is first a businessman. If he faces defeat, he can cut his losses and walk away from the Presidential race without a single thought, and that can leave the GOP’s credibility crippled for years to come.

This is Obama’s legacy, negating the Republican Party’s clout across demographics, pushing them to the edge to survive and find refuge in the toxic narrative of Donald Trump.

Trump’s rise has become a joke around the globe, with no world leader even mulling the prospect of dealing with the reality TV star as commander-in-chief of the United States. It is the consequence of the Republicans opposing Obama as he tried to be on the right side of history and channel the will of the majority of American citizens over multiple politically divisive issues.

This is Obama’s legacy, negating the Republican Party’s clout across demographics, pushing them to the edge to survive and find refuge in the toxic narrative of Donald Trump. Obama laid the seeds for Republicans to birth their Frankenstein. Now, the Democrats applaud and the GOP laments as the monster runs amok and tears down his creators.

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Republicans! Trump is the man of your dreams

As November approaches and the United States gears to pick its next president, battle lines are being drawn not only across America, but also within the Republican Party. Senior party leaders are banding together to challenge Donald Trump’s meteoric ascension to the Presidential nomination. With 20 primary wins under his belt, Trump now enjoys the support of 736 delegates with Texas Senator Ted Cruz following with 463 and Ohio Governor John Kasich with 143. It is laughable to call it a 3-corner race as the real estate magnate has maintained a significant lead, with the Republican Party convention in July drawing near.

The anti-Trump campaign despite being loud, is also failing to pick up steam as many Republican leaders are choosing to remain neutral.

Yet his rhetoric driven campaign, inflammatory messages against minorities and lack of a policy agenda, has spooked Republican leaders with the prospect of the party being divided in an election year, abandoning the Centre-Right and becoming defined by Brand Trump for years to come.

Prominent Conservative leaders held a meeting in Washington earlier this month for a ‘unity ticket’ against Donald Trump, lobbying delegates and other Republicans to choose a ‘real’ Conservative candidate at the party convention to take on the Democrats. Ex-Presidential candidates Mitt Romney and John McCain have issued a warning to the Republican Party over pitching Trump, while a majority of Presidential candidates pushed out of the race have swung their support behind Ted Cruz, hoping he closes the gap before July.

However, the popular will backing Trump is strong. His brand of politics has resonated among multiple age and social groups including minorities as he continues to pick delegates from states with different demographic settings. The anti-Trump campaign despite being loud, is also failing to pick up steam as many Republican leaders are choosing to remain neutral. Even John Kasich, who persists in the race despite dismal support, has rejected overtures from the anti-Trump brigade to drop out and join them. He may tell the cameras he’s the best candidate to stop Trump, but he clearly does not want to irk the Republican front runner. It’s logical. The White House has been out of the hands of the Republicans for eight years, and many cannot ignore the will of the voter base, especially when Trump enjoys a significant lead. Any attempt to stall the nomination at the party convention will look like pure sabotage. Trump sparked moral outrage when he told CNN that such a move would cause riots, yet the Republican Party cannot undermine the backlash they may face.

The best line this week on the state of the Republicans comes from Hillary Clinton, who said, “With Trump, Republicans reap what they sow”. The statement is apt for a party that effectively prepared the platform for the rise of Donald Trump’s political narrative, granting him the recipe to which he added his flair and now dominates the right wing.

The Republicans have always said that the military and economy of the United States has been on the decline, a pitch used as a direct attack on social welfare spending under Democratic governments.

The Republicans have always said that the military and economy of the United States has been on the decline, a pitch used as a direct attack on social welfare spending under Democratic governments. The sentiment can be traced back to the Reagan years and is vehemently championed by Trump who repeatedly says, “We don’t win anymore” along with his
infamous campaign slogan ‘Make America Great Again’. In their campaign against the welfare state, Republicans have always touted the bogie of ‘Washington insiders’ playing vote bank politics and the need to run the country like a business. Trump oozes that very idea, highlighted in an interview to the New York Times in 1999 where he said,

“My entire life, I’ve watched politicians bragging about how poor they are, how they came from nothing, how poor their parents and grandparents were. And I said to myself, if they can stay so poor for so many generations, maybe this isn’t the kind of person we want to be electing to higher office. How smart can they be? They’re morons.”

Most significantly, Republican leaders have always called for an end to political correctness, as a tactic to prop up their controversial arguments on same-sex rights, minorities, gun control, abortion and racial violence. Trump is anything but politically correct. It is his most endearing quality as a reality TV star and not surprisingly a
Presidential candidate. Ask Trump supporters, and their first line of praise is – ‘He speaks his mind’.

In Trump, the Republicans see the monstrosity of their political stance, shed of all filters – their voters rallying around a Republican leader who is not the run-of the-mill silver-tongued preacher but an audacious self-styled Godman. Trump has just stepped up the outrage, sharpened and prejudiced the Republican plot. The party may feel his manner is ‘brazen’ and ‘unpresidential’ yet for all intensive purposes it is the original Republican message. They must realise that Donald Trump is the man of their dreams. His ascension to the nomination is nothing short of destiny.

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Bernie vs Trump: Conviction vs Politics

As the US Presidential race heats up, two key ideological poles have emerged in the form of Senator Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump. Both candidates have framed an unconventional narrative on opposite ends of the political spectrum – one seemingly driven by conviction and the other by pure politics, but both challenging the status quo.

As the US Presidential race heats up, two key ideological poles have emerged in the form of Senator Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump.

Bernie Sanders is the longest serving independent senator in Congress and one of the few politicians actively aligned with the core base of American Democrats, who are disgruntled with the ‘Hope and Change’ promise of the Obama administration. He has been in public life for decades and has championed multiple social issues. Sanders was an activist during the civil rights struggle in the 1960s; as a student at the University of Chicago, he was an organiser for the Congress of Racial Equality and campaigned against segregation in public schools. He was part of the legendary March on Washington and one of the earliest champions of same sex rights at a time when the issue was political suicide. Sanders has a consistent progressive voting record, defending the manufacturing sector, campaigning for climate change awareness and supporting legislation to address income inequality.

Sanders supports the concept of universal healthcare; declaring it a fundamental human right, he is in favour of a ‘single payer system’, and aims to replicate the healthcare infrastructure of Australia and Canada in the United States. He was also one of the architects of the Veterans Access, Choice and Accountability Act of 2014, a bill which sanctioned $5 billion for better healthcare for armed forces personnel returning from Iraq and Afghanistan. Sanders is also one of the architects of the Climate Protection Act of 2013, a bill which levies a carbon pollution fee on manufacturers, polluters and importers, diverting funds into green power technology. The senator is an ardent advocate of affordable higher education for American students, millions of whom face crippling debt from student loans. In fact, his most popular policy promise is increasing taxes for Wall Street and corporate America to fund higher education.

On the policy front, Sanders is the poster boy for Democratic voters, especially the younger demographic. A radical approach is the key difference between him and Hillary Clinton, the current front-runner, who has adopted a more calculating approach in the Presidential race. For Sanders, the policies he has championed for decades are the central issues in American politics today. His no-nonsense demeanour and rustic Brooklyn persona set him apart from Clinton, whose public image seems continuously ‘touched up’.

Sanders supports the concept of universal healthcare; declaring it a fundamental human right, he is in favour of a ‘single payer system’, and aims to replicate the healthcare infrastructure of Australia and Canada in the United States

On campaign financing, Hillary Clinton has received millions from Wall Street via Super PACs while the majority of Sanders’ campaign is funded through public donations and support from multiple labour unions; Sanders has raised over $2 million through public donations and is closing in on Obama’s record from the 2012 elections. His appeal among Democratic voters is also driven by his effective use of social media to promote his policies and track record, in a nation where internet penetration is almost 90%. Consider the first Democratic debate: while the mainstream media gave the win to Hillary, social media gave the edge to Sanders, and he continues to dominate the political space on the web.

With Hillary Clinton there is the temptation of electing the first female US President, but Sanders is more of an activist than a politician. It seems the Democratic party’s mind is with Hillary, but its heart is with Sanders. Their national approval ratings are still neck to neck, but Sanders is ahead of Clinton according to the pre-poll survey of the first primary in New Hampshire, which goes to
the ballot in February. The result will be a crucial indicator of where the two leaders actually stand.

Then there’s Donald Trump, the front runner for the Republican nomination. He speaks his mind and has alienated multiple vote banks via his controversial statements. However, he has become a lightning rod for extreme-right Republican voters. Trump has called for a ban on Muslims entering the United States, he has called illegal immigrants from Mexico drug smugglers, criminals and rapists, and even said that tough gun laws contributed to the recent attacks in Paris. Trump seems to have come as a welcome relief to those Republican voters who have been aching to shed political correctness. His words seem to have empowered those who believe that immorality and savagery are rooted in certain cultures and that social security is only for ‘true Americans’. A Public Policy Polling survey of Trump supporters found that 66% of them believe that Obama is a Muslim, 61% believe he was not born in the United States and 63% favour amending the Constitution to end birth right citizenship. As Trump galvanises the far-right he remains far ahead of his competitors, as none of them have succeeded in consolidating the support of moderate Republicans.

Trump has emerged bigger than the Republican Party, but he has damaged the party’s image as well. No matter how many times his competitors for the Republican nomination denounce him for his views, they are still unable to break his support base.

Trump is a businessman and his approach to the elections is the same; it is how anyone who wants to storm into the national scene approaches politics. Trump has tailored a product after studying consumers and he is marketing it effectively. He doesn’t really believe that Muslims should be banned from the United States. He has extensive business ties in Muslim nations including Indonesia, UAE, Dubai, Qatar and Turkey, and even his business partners in these nations understand his strategy. The objective is simple: to win by any means possible. Just like the tagline of his show The Apprentice, ‘It’s nothing personal, it’s just business’

Trump has emerged bigger than the Republican Party, but he has damaged the party’s image as well. No matter how many times his competitors for the Republican nomination denounce him for his views, they are still unable to break his support base. The real estate magnate has pledged to spend around $1 billion on his Presidential campaign. He believes he is the most powerful man in the world and now he wants the world to realise it too.

Sanders and Trump are not traditional politicians. They are wild cards in their respective political arenas, one driven by principle and the other by the ambition to win. Support for both candidates is only rising as this election is becoming a clash of extreme ideologies. Conviction vs politics, virtue vs pandering, what will emerge as the stronger political force? This Presidential election will reveal the soul of 21st century America.