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Independents: The tipping factor in the US elections

The first phase of the Presidential elections has come to a close, with the months leading up to November set to see a pitched battle between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump. Despite the prospect of America making history – on one side choosing a female Commander-In-Chief and on the other a reality TV star – the biggest headline of the primaries has the been the rise of the Independent voter and the evident weakness of the 2-party American political system.

In the postmodern world, with the fluidity of identity, there is a yearning for political alternatives, a wave that is playing out across the United States.

In the postmodern world, with the fluidity of identity, there is a yearning for political alternatives, a wave that is playing out across the United States. The trend of rising Independents and decline of Democratic voters was earlier indicated by a Pew Research Centre report in 2014, which showed that at the middle of Obama’s Presidency, 39% voters identified themselves as Independents, while Democrats accounted for 32% and Republicans at 23% of voters. Fast forward to 2016, the national Gallup poll, which emerged just a few weeks before the primary race in February showed that 42% of voters identified themselves as Independent voters, with 29% as Democrats and 26% as Republicans. According to the report of the polling agency – Independent identification has been above 40% for the last 5 years, breaching the mark back in 2011 towards the end of Obama’s first term. In fact, Obama’s second term has left the percentage of voters identifying as Democrats at the lowest point in the past 27 years, maintaining just a slim margin over the Republicans. The Gallup report also highlights that a key factor behind voter migration is the policy gridlock in the US Congress. This was a significant aspect of Obama’s last years as President as he faced off against a Republican controlled Congress. To the dismay of Democrats, even though Obama championed key social legislation through Executive Orders, the political advantage has failed to go to his party or Hillary Clinton.

The report gives credence to the rise of Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump as political juggernauts in the Presidential race. They are outsiders, a veteran senator and a self-styled right-wing godman, harnessing the strength of voters estranged from the 2-party system. Both leaders are no veterans of any party and simply sought their nod for the Presidential nomination. Bernie Sanders is the longest serving Independent member of Congress in American history while Donald Trump has changed political parties at least five times since the 1980s and struck oil with his carefully calibrated political pitch to the right-wing voter base.

Even as the attrition rate of voters is marginally higher in the Republican camp, support for the two parties among Independent voters is a dead heat.

Even as the attrition rate of voters is marginally higher in the Republican camp, support for the two parties among Independent voters is a dead heat. The Gallup poll study reveals that out of 42% voters who identified as Independents, 16% leaned towards the Democrats, while another 16% leaned towards the Republicans. Yet, the democratic advantage becomes clear where Bernie Sanders failed to secure traditional Democratic vote banks. Sanders may have given Hillary a tough fight, even forcing her to realign the narrative of her campaign, yet she soared unchallenged in the delegate-count to become the presumptive Democratic candidate. Trump meanwhile was undisputed in the race for the Republican nomination. He was miles ahead of every traditional Republican leader as well as party veterans who all bowed out of the contest.

The advantage of the Democrats is simply a reflection of the evolution of the polity of America, where there is greater public support and respect for social justice issues which the Democrats have traditionally championed. Nonetheless, the ‘advantage’ is a far cry from the popularity the party enjoyed in the George Bush era, where it sustained a comfortable 12 point advantage in multiple voter identification polls.

One major implication of rising Independent voters rallying behind Sanders and Trump is the polarisation of the political narrative. Sanders ‘political revolution’ for universal rights and tackling income inequality was met by Trump’s hate speech, which has galvanised the Republican fringe. This has pushed both parties to eye both ends of the spectrum for political support, as Independents edge themselves into the league of traditional vote banks. Yet, the effect is different for both parties. Independents have pushed the Democrats to get in touch with their social justice ethos and base, connecting the party to the positive sentiment emerging from President Obama’s policy breakthroughs in his last months in office. However, for the Republicans, Trump’s vitriol and zero policy focus has rallied a major section of Independent and Republican voters, but has crippled the party’s credibility for years to come. No international leader can imagine dealing with Trump to decide the fate of the free world.

On a pan-America stage facing voters of all political leanings, the real estate magnate’s venomous campaign and lack of administrative experience is set to crumble before Hillary Clinton.

In the months leading to the election in November, Trump’s narrative is likely to unravel in a face-to-face confrontation with Hillary Clinton. On a pan-America stage facing voters of all political leanings, the real estate magnate’s venomous campaign and lack of administrative experience is set to crumble before Hillary Clinton. It will be a suitable leader versus a downright embarrassment. Trump’s position at the helm of the GOP is likely to push the ‘Democrat-leaning’ Independents into the party’s fold – and it may even surpass the popularity boost delivered by George Bush’s presidency.

Independent voters have proven to be a force to reckon with. They have granted a lesson to Democrats to get in touch with their ideological centre and made Trump a political rock star. Yet, they have torpedoed the Republican party’s image and exposed the political bankruptcy of their leadership.

Bernie vs Trump: Conviction vs Politics

As the US Presidential race heats up, two key ideological poles have emerged in the form of Senator Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump. Both candidates have framed an unconventional narrative on opposite ends of the political spectrum – one seemingly driven by conviction and the other by pure politics, but both challenging the status quo.

As the US Presidential race heats up, two key ideological poles have emerged in the form of Senator Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump.

Bernie Sanders is the longest serving independent senator in Congress and one of the few politicians actively aligned with the core base of American Democrats, who are disgruntled with the ‘Hope and Change’ promise of the Obama administration. He has been in public life for decades and has championed multiple social issues. Sanders was an activist during the civil rights struggle in the 1960s; as a student at the University of Chicago, he was an organiser for the Congress of Racial Equality and campaigned against segregation in public schools. He was part of the legendary March on Washington and one of the earliest champions of same sex rights at a time when the issue was political suicide. Sanders has a consistent progressive voting record, defending the manufacturing sector, campaigning for climate change awareness and supporting legislation to address income inequality.

Sanders supports the concept of universal healthcare; declaring it a fundamental human right, he is in favour of a ‘single payer system’, and aims to replicate the healthcare infrastructure of Australia and Canada in the United States. He was also one of the architects of the Veterans Access, Choice and Accountability Act of 2014, a bill which sanctioned $5 billion for better healthcare for armed forces personnel returning from Iraq and Afghanistan. Sanders is also one of the architects of the Climate Protection Act of 2013, a bill which levies a carbon pollution fee on manufacturers, polluters and importers, diverting funds into green power technology. The senator is an ardent advocate of affordable higher education for American students, millions of whom face crippling debt from student loans. In fact, his most popular policy promise is increasing taxes for Wall Street and corporate America to fund higher education.

On the policy front, Sanders is the poster boy for Democratic voters, especially the younger demographic. A radical approach is the key difference between him and Hillary Clinton, the current front-runner, who has adopted a more calculating approach in the Presidential race. For Sanders, the policies he has championed for decades are the central issues in American politics today. His no-nonsense demeanour and rustic Brooklyn persona set him apart from Clinton, whose public image seems continuously ‘touched up’.

On campaign financing, Hillary Clinton has received millions from Wall Street via Super PACs while the majority of Sanders’ campaign is funded through public donations and support from multiple labour unions; Sanders has raised over $2 million through public donations and is closing in on Obama’s record from the 2012 elections. His appeal among Democratic voters is also driven by his effective use of social media to promote his policies and track record, in a nation where internet penetration is almost 90%. Consider the first Democratic debate: while the mainstream media gave the win to Hillary, social media gave the edge to Sanders, and he continues to dominate the political space on the web.

With Hillary Clinton there is the temptation of electing the first female US President, but Sanders is more of an activist than a politician. It seems the Democratic party’s mind is with Hillary, but its heart is with Sanders. Their national approval ratings are still neck to neck, but Sanders is ahead of Clinton according to the pre-poll survey of the first primary in New Hampshire, which goes to
the ballot in February. The result will be a crucial indicator of where the two leaders actually stand.

Then there’s Donald Trump, the front runner for the Republican nomination. He speaks his mind and has alienated multiple vote banks via his controversial statements. However, he has become a lightning rod for extreme-right Republican voters. Trump has called for a ban on Muslims entering the United States, he has called illegal immigrants from Mexico drug smugglers, criminals and rapists, and even said that tough gun laws contributed to the recent attacks in Paris. Trump seems to have come as a welcome relief to those Republican voters who have been aching to shed political correctness. His words seem to have empowered those who believe that immorality and savagery are rooted in certain cultures and that social security is only for ‘true Americans’. A Public Policy Polling survey of Trump supporters found that 66% of them believe that Obama is a Muslim, 61% believe he was not born in the United States and 63% favour amending the Constitution to end birth right citizenship. As Trump galvanises the far-right he remains far ahead of his competitors, as none of them have succeeded in consolidating the support of moderate Republicans.

Trump is a businessman and his approach to the elections is the same; it is how anyone who wants to storm into the national scene approaches politics. Trump has tailored a product after studying consumers and he is marketing it effectively. He doesn’t really believe that Muslims should be banned from the United States. He has extensive business ties in Muslim nations including Indonesia, UAE, Dubai, Qatar and Turkey, and even his business partners in these nations understand his strategy. The objective is simple: to win by any means possible. Just like the tagline of his show The Apprentice, ‘It’s nothing personal, it’s just business’

Trump has emerged bigger than the Republican Party, but he has damaged the party’s image as well. No matter how many times his competitors for the Republican nomination denounce him for his views, they are still unable to break his support base. The real estate magnate has pledged to spend around $1 billion on his Presidential campaign. He believes he is the most powerful man in the world and now he wants the world to realise it too.

Sanders and Trump are not traditional politicians. They are wild cards in their respective political arenas, one driven by principle and the other by the ambition to win. Support for both candidates is only rising as this election is becoming a clash of extreme ideologies. Conviction vs politics, virtue vs pandering, what will emerge as the stronger political force? This Presidential election will reveal the soul of 21st century America.