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‘Out of the Box’ Diplomacy

The philosopher Ralph Waldo Emerson once said that “A foolish consistency is the hobgoblin of little minds, adored by little statesmen and philosophers and divines.” In the realm of international affairs, these words reflect the very nature of intelligent diplomacy – an exercise that requires constant recalibration to face a dynamic world, where even a single tweet can spark an international incident. Charges of ‘flip flops’ and ‘inconsistencies’ may be good soundbites for political attacks, yet they form part of any competent nation’s diplomatic strategy.

Prime Minister Modi’s stop-over in Pakistan to meet Nawaz Sharif did nothing less than stump the Opposition in India, which scrambled to formulate a line of attack against the NDA government instead of supporting the effort.

Prime Minister Modi’s stop-over in Pakistan to meet Nawaz Sharif did nothing less than stump the Opposition in India, which scrambled to formulate a line of attack against the NDA government instead of supporting the effort. For months, the Congress party had criticised the Centre for not talking to Pakistan. After the NSA talks in Bangkok and Indian External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj’s attendance at the Heart of Asia summit in Islamabad, the same party is now calling the NDA government’s new found engagement “unstructured”, adding that the ground realities in the region have not changed.

It is clear that this is churlish criticism levelled purely for political leverage. Major political parties in Pakistan welcomed PM Modi’s visit to Lahore. Even the international media was full of praise, but the majority of Opposition parties in India remained united against the PM’s move, citing issues such as the progress of the 26/11 trial, Hafiz Saeed, cross-border terror and the Kashmir dispute to counter the praise. Even Indian news channels, which lauded the Prime Minister, were accused by the Congress of being BJP mouthpieces.

PM Modi’s Lahore visit indicates his attempt to re-evaluate India’s engagement with Pakistan. It is a two-pronged approach, with Indian officials dealing with the military wing via the NSA level talks in
Bangkok and Modi engaging the civilian leadership. The Prime Minister is conscious of the fact that the Indian government cannot appear stubborn when it comes to India-Pakistan ties. There is diplomatic capital in engagement, especially atmospherics, when the Indian government also enforces red lines. The Indian government has previously cancelled talks over Pakistan’s engagement with the Hurriyat as third party stakeholders in the bilateral process. Enhancing atmospherics in such a scenario is essential to facilitate favourable international opinion.

Narendra Modi’s visit to Lahore was unconventional, but so are India’s ties with Pakistan, which continuously face the fleeting promise of resolution.

In the book ‘New Regionalism and the European Union’, political scientists Stelios Stavridis and Panagiota Manoli reflect on the establishment of the European coalition of nations, stressing the
importance of atmospherics to establish and strengthen regional ties, especially to achieve new paradigms. They say, “It is not always the immediate impact that matters, but rather the
wider question of socialization that needs to be acknowledged, which refers to a learning process and the diffusion of norms and behaviours. The potential bridge-making role of parliamentary
diplomacy, coupled with its overall socialization effect, should not be underestimated.”

India-Pakistan ties have always faced a political push and pull, but all challenging diplomatic ties need to be regularly boosted with acts of goodwill and rapprochement. It is an important pre-cursor to achieve any breakthroughs, no matter how unlikely they may seem. Narendra Modi’s visit to Lahore was unconventional, but so are India’s ties with Pakistan, which continuously face the fleeting promise of resolution.

The main charge against Modi is that he didn’t follow conventional procedure; that he thought ‘out of the box’. However, no one with their sights set on a big objective should hesitate to think out of the box or fear criticism for breaking with convention. While achieving tangible results is a different challenge altogether, Modi’s recent move has been one of a statesman, not a politician.

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Pakistan Baffles the World Again

It was touted as a diplomatic victory, when Pakistan PM Nawaz Sharif and India’s PM Narendra Modi met in Ufa in Russia and agreed to exchange voice samples to expedite the 26/11 trial. At the same time, Kashmir was left out of the joint statement, highlighting a bilateral commitment and focus to tackle terror – which has been a scourge on both sides of the Line of Control. The Pakistan Prime Minister signed on the dotted line, and shook hands with Narendra Modi for the whole world to see.

Not only is this case a major embarrassment for Pakistan – but once again highlights that control over foreign policy does not fully rest with the Pakistan Prime Minister’s office.

But, like many times in the past, it was too good to be true. Soon Pakistan’s National Security Advisor Sartaj Aziz held a press conference calling the Modi-Sharif meeting ‘informal’ adding that the joint statement was a ‘non-binding agreement’. Aziz said that India must provide more evidence for the 26/11 trial in Pakistan, a day after the chief of the prosecution team in Pakistan said that no fresh plea will be filed to acquire the voice sample of 26/11 mastermind Zakir-Ur-Rehman Lakhvi – who is out on bail. Lakhvi’s lawyer Rizwan Abbasi said that there is no law in Pakistan which can force his client to provide a voice-sample, whereas the Investigation for a Fair Trial Act passed in Pakistan in 2013 gives the government special powers for surveillance and recording of terror suspects.

This is a direct contradiction to the agreement Nawaz Sharif penned his signature on with the full authority of the highest political office of Pakistan. Not only is this case a major embarrassment for Pakistan – but once again highlights that control over foreign policy does not fully rest with the Pakistan Prime Minister’s office. Clearly there was a push-back from the opposition and the Pakistani army against the stance Sharif took in the joint statement, which prompted the reaction from the establishment. But such a flip-flop erodes confidence in the authority of the Pakistan PM’s office and any assurance that may come from there regarding bilateral ties with India. Nawaz Sharif was even undermined by defence experts from Pakistan who appeared on Indian TV channels – who said that India must not pay much attention to the joint statement, reiterating the same argument that resolving Kashmir is the only way there can be peace between the two nations.

But beyond the foreign policy argument, what’s more worrying is that the Pakistani government has not taken the public outcry against terrorism within its own country that seriously.

This is not the first time India has witnessed a u-turn under the Sharif regime – the first time it was the 1999 Kargil War which broke out just over two months after Nawaz Sharif and former Indian Prime
Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee signed the Lahore Declaration in Pakistan to boost bilateral ties and seek a peaceful resolution of all outstanding issues.

Pakistan is currently patting itself on the back for strengthening ties with China and Russia. These are significant achievements, but the move with India has once again set the precedent that Pakistan’s political authority can easily renege on bilateral agreements if it feels pressure from other institutional authorities, primarily the military. This once again has sent out the message that there can only be effective engagement on security issues and counter-terrorism if Pakistan’s security establishment is on-board, if not gives a nod to the political authority. That is not a good sign for Pakistan’s infant democracy. But beyond the foreign policy argument, what’s more worrying is that the Pakistani government has not taken the public outcry against terrorism within its own country that seriously. Launching military operations near the borders of Pakistan is one thing, but the security establishment is ignoring the terror units operating and growing in its heartland. If Pakistan repeatedly tells the world that it is a victim of terror and is fighting monsters on the front lines – it should help India bring one its biggest perpetrators to justice. It will be a big boost for Indo-Pak ties and will hasten the wavering faith of the world in Pakistan’s commitment to fight terror.